Calculated risk
Article from TÜV SÜD Journal 3/2010
 | Industrial-plant explosions, volcano eruptions, flooding: Technical accidents and natural disasters pose enormous threats and create high costs for companies. Forecasts are becoming increasingly important. But how can risks be estimated? |
The ground rocks in Haiti at a previously unknown level of magnitude. Seven on the Richter scale. The death toll climbs to 300,000, according to U.N. estimates. A total of 1.2 million people lose their homes. Such natural disasters strike the very core of the human race – and they generally lead to calls for improved forecasting. »You cannot predict earthquakes,« says Prof. Dr. Bruno Merz of the Helmholtz Center in Potsdam, Germany. »On the one hand, the number of natural disasters has been continuously rising for years. On the other, society's vulnerability has been rising as well.« As a result of increased technical and economic links, people have become more susceptible to risks and the extent of risk is much broader. »In particular, Europe is more and more densely populated and increasingly networked,« the expert says.
The dramatic extent of this interdependence is demonstrated by the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in mid-April. When a volcano normally erupts on Iceland, it is »really not a big deal in physical terms,« Merz notes. Nonetheless, air traffic in Europe came to a complete stop this time. Airlines lost up to €2.5 billion, according to estimates. Finely meshed interrelationships came into play here with all economic sectors that depend on air transport suffering massive losses. In one example of this impact, an automaker had to shut down production in Germany for a period of time because important electronic components could not be delivered.
Learning from each disaster
Such events do not just come out of the blue. »In terms of probability of occurrence, natural disasters can be calculated well. After all, they obey physical laws,« says Prof. Dr. Peter Höppe, Head of the Department of Georisk Research at the reinsurance company Munich Re. »We learn something from each event because every natural disaster is different and yields new information.«
Calculations of risks done in advance are based on estimates of the threat situation. Researchers determine how probable the occurrence of an event of a certain intensity is and what damage can be expected to occur as a result of particular intensities of natural dangers. Georisk researchers develop various scenarios that model the impact of natural disasters with diverse strengths. The scientists collect data, perform calculations, analyze past disasters and the damage they
caused as well as use various forecasting models. In this work, one natural disaster does not equal another. The greatest difference exists between geophysical events – that is, earthquakes, volcano eruptions and tsunamis – and weather-related events. »Our statistics show that the number of geophysical events has remained largely constant. But the number of weather-generated natural disasters has significantly climbed in recent decades. For this reason, we believe one thing: Climate change is already having an impact,« Höppe says. »Volcanic eruptions are relatively easy to forecast. We also have very good models for flooding,« Prof. Dr. Merz says of the research work.
Improving technical safety
The forces of nature are not the only cause of devastating damage. Accidents triggered by technical malfunctions also cost lives and cause environmental damage. A good example is the explosion of the »Deepwater Horizon« drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico in April. It tore a toxic gash in the gulf's floor, allowing millions of liters of oil to gush into the water each day for weeks. The accident killed 11 people and triggered the worst environmental disaster in the history of the United States. The damage is estimated to total double-digit billions of dollars. An avoidable accident?
To increase the safety of technical systems, buildings and facilities, independent companies like the international firm Global Risk Consultants help businesses identify areas of risk, review disaster plans and recommend protective steps. If, for instance, the safety level of an industrial facility is to be determined, its size, structural condition, fire loads, technical safety systems and earthquake probability are considered. Weather services, with their storm information, are constantly consulted as well. The risks related to innovative technologies like offshore wind farms are also carefully analyzed: Given their location far out at sea and their deep anchoring below the water's surface, storms can also damage them.
Climate change may increase the danger of natural disasters. Experts expect the threat of hurricane-strength winds along U.S. coasts will continue to increase. In Europe, storms with heavy rains and heat waves will be more likely. The economic damage caused by weather-related natural disasters in the past 10 years has been immense: about $90 billion a year.